Electricity now a global challenge
2008/04/18
Global demand for electricity is increasing rapidly on the back of ongoing economic development and security requirements, according to various sources. What is being done about it?
Two years ago, before rolling black-outs became a dreaded feature of life in South Africa, energy expert Professor Anton Eberhard warned that the efficacy of electricity supply planning and investments needed to be improved.
Writing in the UCT News (30 May 2006), Professor Eberhard, who leads the Management Programme in Infrastructure Reform and Regulation at the UCT Graduate School of Business, also emphasized the importance of developing sustainable demand-side management programmes.
"And," he adds, "as a contributor to the Energy Policy White Paper published by the government in 1998, I also warned that generation capacity would run out in 2007 and that the next investment decision was needed by the end of 1999 at the latest!"
Fast forward to 2008 …
Today, the country is in the throes of an electricity supply crisis that, while difficult to measure accurately, has had a detrimental effect on business confidence, says Richard Downing, an economist at SAACI (the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry - formerly SACOB).
(At this point, it is interesting to note that Nicola Brooks of Moneyweb interviewed Ian Mckechnie, president of the South African Institute of Electrical Engineers on 17 January 2008. He told her that Eskom and government have known since 1990 that South Africa would run out of generating capacity by 2007.)
Commenting on SAACI's Business Confidence Index (BCI) for January 2008, Downing says business confidence has declined to its lowest level since October 2003. "The electricity shortages are of such a severe, sensitive and strategic nature that the magnitude in terms of real physical economic performance and capacity constraints has not yet fully entered the information base that shapes the business opinion and mindset," he says ominously.
He adds: "It is apparent that the shortage of electricity poses a severe threat to the production capacity for goods and services, since critical production time is lost due to electricity power shortages during working hours. Even if the loss in output could be limited to between 5% and 10% of GDP, it will be difficult to attain any growth in the economy in 2008. The severity of the electricity crisis has shifted all the attention towards keeping the economy functioning 'normally' on the supply side. The weaker rand against important trade and investment-related currencies bears testimony to a troubled business mood…."
Global electricity challenge
Global demand for electricity is increasing rapidly on the back of ongoing economic development and security requirements, according to various sources.
Among those countries treating the world-wide energy challenge as a priority is the USA. An example of its commitment to energy conservation is in President Bush's December 2007 signing into law of the Energy Independence and Security Act (H.R.6). According to Bill Williams, IEEE-USA's legislative representative for technology policy activities, the Act directs the Department of Energy to adopt a new national technical standard for interconnecting distributed energy sources to the electric power grid.
The Act also contains measures that will see the phasing out of inefficient incandescent light bulbs, the improvement of appliance efficiency standards and the implementation of other conservation measures, he adds.
In Australia, the New South Wales Government is spending an extra $85 million upgrading the central coast's electricity network, according to ABC News ("Health concerns over NSW electricity upgrade", 1 March 2008).
Other countries
Perhaps of little comfort to South Africans right now (particularly when they're caught up in their thousands in traffic snarls caused by power outages which render traffic lights useless) is that other countries are also experiencing power problems.
These include China, which according to Jody Clark in MoneyWeek (19 April 2007), is experiencing rising demand for electricity to the tune of 13% a year. He says that China's power plants – 78% of which are run on coal – are working overtime as a result. "And when you factor in that coal production in the People's Republic is not increasing significantly, it's no surprise that China has just become a net importer of coal after years as an exporter."
Switzerland is also troubled. According to swissinfo.ch, as the number of Christmas lights increases every festive season, fears are mounting that the country could face a shortage of electricity by 2020. ("Christmas lights spark electricity concerns" - 20 December 2007.)
Solutions
So what's South Africa doing to resolve the problem?
According to Luyanda Makapela in BuaNews (6 February 2008), the government launched South Africa's National Energy Efficiency Campaign in February and is working on energy-savvy proposals to include in the Electricity Regulation Act. Makapela says these proposals include increased use of solar power lighting and heating, replacing incandescent lights with energy-efficient bulbs, and promoting the use of creative systems lighting (CSL).
Regulations will be supported by electricity rationing, continues Makapela, who wrote in BuaNews a week later (11 March 2008) that three electricity experts from France had arrived in South Africa "to help Eskom define the country's most pressing needs in terms of power generation, capacity and maintenance."
Alterative power
Wind-generated power, believed by Wikipedia to have been used for grinding grain in Persia since 200 B.C, is the world's fastest growing new source of electricity, according to America.gov (www.america.gov). "Turning sunlight into energy has been a dream of inventors at least since 1861, when the first sun-powered motor was patented in France. Today, innovation, investment and technology advances have produced solar technologies that generate power and reduce stress on a critical electricity infrastructure."
In his article "Global Wind Power Capacity Reaches 100,000 Megawatts" for the Earth Policy Institute (EPI - www.earth-policy.org – 4 March 2008), Jonathan G. Dorn says that global wind power capacity increased by a record-breaking 20 000 megawatts last year. This has brought the world total to 94,100 megawatts: "enough to satisfy the residential electricity needs of 150 million people".
In Europe, he notes that 2007 was the first year ever in which wind power additions exceeded the additions of any other power source, including natural gas. "Europe's installed capacity currently totals 57,100 megawatts, and its new installations in 2007 accounted for 43 percent of total global installations. Wind-generated electricity now meets nearly 4 percent of Europe's electricity demand, enough to supply electricity to 90 million residents."
Germany, the world's frontrunner in total installed wind power capacity, generates more than 7 percent of its electricity from the wind, says Dorn. Spain ranks third in total installed wind capacity, with wind energy supplying 10 percent of its electricity, second only to Denmark in terms of percentage of electricity generated this way.
"France also demonstrated impressive gains in 2007, increasing its total installed wind capacity by 57 percent to 2,450 megawatts," he says, adding that the French government's goal is to increase installed wind capacity to 25,000 megawatts by 2020.
According to Dorn, the USA is the world leader in new installations and has been for the last three years. On track to overtake Germany as the leader in installed wind power by the end of 2009, the USA boasts wind farms in 34 states, the electrical output from which equal to that "from 16 coal-fired power plants and enough to power 4.5 million U.S. homes".
SA and the generator generation
Here in South Africa, going to bed earlier at the suggestion of Minerals and Energy Minister Buyelwa Sonjica, is one way of cutting back on electricity usage.
This sage advice seems to have had little impact on South Africans, however, judging by unflagging demand for generators. Whether it's because South Africans as a nation don't like going to bed early, prefer hot coffee to iced tea or have an aversion to the food in their freezers defrosting and thereby making them vulnerable to food poisoning, they've become the generator generation.
Carpe diem, though: leading generator producer and supplier Jetman warns that these Eskom-panaceas can be lethal in the hands of novice users and get-rich-quick installers whose commitment to quality and expertise is negligible.
"There are several considerations to keep in mind when choosing which set to buy, and where and how to install it," says Jetman founder and CEO Wayne Soekoe. "The recent power failures have resulted in many businesses and home owners rushing out to buy generators. Remember, however, that a generator set ("genset") is in itself a supply authority, which makes the dangers and risk of electrocution exactly the same as Eskom or municipal supplies. The change-over requirements between the two power sources are crucial to the safety of the installation – incorrect connections are potentially fatal."
He continues: "There are many different generators on the market so get a qualified electrician to advise you on the best one for your needs. Heating appliances such as stoves, heaters, dishwashers, geysers, kettles, tumble dryers, toasters and hairdryers draw a lot of power while PCs and electronic equipment don't use much power but are voltage-sensitive. If the generator does not deliver a constant voltage and there are dips and spikes in the system, equipment is likely to suffer damage. It's therefore a good idea to initiate some internal load shedding when using a generator so switch off some lights when you want to boil the kettle."
"Single-phase generators work for most home-owners and motors of five horsepower or less. Industrial or commercial applications usually require three-phase power, which is also better for motor starting and running."
Finally, his advice for those faced with choosing gas or diesel-powered generators, is that diesel is the answer to longevity and lower operating costs. "Today's modern diesels are quiet and normally require much less maintenance than comparably-sized gas (natural gas or propane) generators," Soekoe explains, adding that fuel costs per kW produced with diesels are normally 30 to 50 percent less than gas units. – Ingrid Olivier
For more information contact SACCI at (011) 446 3829 or Wayne Soekoe of Jetman at (012) 252 0338, or send an email. Click here to visit the website.
Electricity now a global challenge
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